Geopolitical chess: Unpacking the Northern Territories conundrum

Last week, the Japanese government participated in a ceremony commemorating Northern Territories Day.

At this annual event, hundreds gather to call for the return of land captured by Soviet forces at the end of World War II. The prime minister has traditionally appeared to deliver remarks on the government’s effort to restore Japanese control of the islands — and this year was no exception. Fumio Kishida conceded that the situation was difficult but added that it remained the government’s policy to pursue a peace treaty with Russia that secures the territories’ return.

The situation is intractable. While domestic motivation for Tokyo to resolve the territorial dispute may endure, the opposite is true in Moscow. In response to Japan’s support of Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression, Kremlin officials have doubled down on land claims, arguing that “the territorial question” is closed and the Northern Territories will become a site for weapons buildup in the years to come.